September is doing a remarkably good impression of summer. Unfortunately, something rather extraordinary is happening about 6,000 miles away.
El Niño — “the little boy”, historically the Christ Child — is strengthening in the Pacific. Current forecasts suggest the 2026 event could become one of the strongest ever recorded. For Britain, that does not mean a particular storm is coming on a particular Tuesday. It means the odds have shifted towards a wetter and potentially stormier late autumn and early winter.
In ordinary English: November and December could be lively.
Fortunately, this particular tiger has had the courtesy to phone ahead before turning up for tea.
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Windthrow
There is a word you may hear rather more often this winter: windthrow.
It is the forestry term for a tree being uprooted by wind rather than simply breaking. Its less dramatic relative is windrock — repeated movement in the wind disturbing a tree's roots and anchorage.
Trees are held upright by their root systems and the soil around them. Prolonged wet weather can reduce anchorage in susceptible ground, while shallow-rooted trees and trees whose exposure has recently changed can be particularly vulnerable. Timing matters too: a deciduous tree still carrying its leaves presents considerably more surface to the wind than the same tree once abscission* has taken place.
That doesn't mean booking speculative tree surgery. Check the stakes and ties on young trees. Think about what has changed since last winter: has a large neighbouring tree or hedge disappeared and left something more exposed? If a mature tree genuinely worries you, do get professional help rather than attempting amateur preventative surgery.
Otherwise, leave it alone. A mature tree that is going to come down in an exceptional storm may simply come down. You may not be able to change that, but you can move the Tesla.
The RHS has useful guidance on young trees and windrock for anyone who wants the practical detail.
*Abscission — a very rare word for leaf fall used almost exclusively by people who want you to know they know it.
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Before Everyone Else's Fence Is Lying in the Road
Trees are only the spectacular end of the problem.
Fences, gates, sheds, greenhouses and trellis can spend years concealing how knackered they are until the first serious gale asks a more searching question.
Go and look now. Push the questionable fence post. Check the shed door. Look at loose greenhouse glass, damaged trellis, gates and anything else that appears to be surviving largely through habit.
There is a financial reason for doing this before a storm as well. Home insurance is not a maintenance contract, and storm damage to fences and gates is commonly excluded from standard policies. Existing deterioration can also complicate claims elsewhere.
If your fence is obviously knackered, dealing with it before everyone else's fence is lying in the road may be considerably easier.
One useful principle is already worth knowing: a completely solid barrier isn't necessarily the best defence against wind. Permeable fencing and windbreaks allow some air through, reducing its force, while solid barriers can create turbulence behind them.
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Securing the Garden
Set aside half an hour this weekend and walk around the garden with one question:
What happens here if it gets REALLY windy?
If you have younger children, take them with you. Leave a couple of harmless, obvious things for them to spot — an empty plastic pot, football or watering can — and let them work out what needs moving. It gives them a part in preparing the garden and makes the possibility of very windy weather something the family has already discussed rather than something completely unexpected.
Then look at the less interesting things yourself.
The parasol. Garden furniture. Trampoline. Paddling pool. Pots. Toys. Ladders. Anything propped against the shed. You don't need to empty the garden in September; decide where everything will go if severe winds are forecast. Clear the necessary space now and get rid of summer things you already know you won't use again.
For younger children, there is another benefit. If a storm does eventually arrive, trees moving, things rattling and wind howling around the house are no longer entirely unexplained. You can remind them that this is the weather you prepared the garden for, everything that could sensibly be made safe has been dealt with, and it will pass.
Most of this costs nothing. More importantly, it turns preparation from something done frantically when a warning appears on your phone into something already thought through.
If you're looking around your garden and aren't sure what matters, I can do it with you. A Garden Check is a paid one-hour visit: we'll work out what needs doing before winter, what can wait, what you can deal with yourself and what needs a specialist. If it leads to OTGR work, the fee is credited against it.
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The Tiger May Never Arrive
None of this predicts that Surrey is about to disappear into the Atlantic. El Niño changes probabilities; it doesn't make appointments. November and December may be benign.
But that doesn't make the preparation wasted. A rotten fence still needed attention. Young tree stakes still needed checking. The paddling pool wasn't going to improve during January. And spending half an hour actually looking at your garden is rarely a bad investment.
Advance warning is a reason to do things, not to stop doing them. Autumn remains the time to prepare gardens for winter, undertake appropriate planting and pruning, clear what genuinely needs clearing and get necessary work booked while there is still time to choose when and how it is done.
If you'd rather I found the problems before the wind does, I have limited Garden Rescue availability this autumn.
And if the tiger does eventually turn up, at least there is a tin of tiger food waiting for him.
(Need help? Click here to contact Olli for a free consultation and quote)
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